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Goolsbee - Inflation Can Be A Bit Higher And Still Hit 2%

FED

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) sticks to his dovish guns in prepared remarks before a Q&A event at the Council on Foreign Relations. The remarks are of note following the hawkish reaction to yesterday’s stronger than expected CPI inflation.

  • The current stance is “quite restrictive”, he doesn’t believe the last mile of the inflation fight is the hardest, productivity has rebounded much faster than expected and inflation can be a bit higher but still remaining on track.
  • He emphasized that the Fed’s inflation goal is based on PCE, not CPI.
  • On housing: "Over the past few months the deceleration in housing services inflation has not been as fast as expected. That is at odds with market data on rents for new leases, so I expect improvements to resume. Still, that puzzle got bigger with the Consumer Price Index data yesterday, and it is something I am watching,"
  • On PCE vs CPI: "They can differ somewhat significantly in some important aspects, especially in regard to some of the components that have behaved strangely as of late, like housing and other services. So, we will need to see what those PCE data show."
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