GOP Injects More Uncertainty Into Negotiations On Border/Ukr/Govt Funding

House Republicans yesterday argued that US-Mexico border policy could be tied to government funding, putting two complex ongoing negotiations onto one track and elevating the risk of a partial govt shutdown at the first funding deadline on Jan 19

• The new dynamic could also imperil President Biden’s national security supplemental funding request, which includes new funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and is also tied to a border deal.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) yesterday doubled down that his conference is unlikely to accept a border deal which falls short of the House-passed legislation H.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act - The GOP bill which has no chance of clearing the Senate.
• Meanwhile, the GOP-controlled House Homeland Security Committee will begin impeachment proceedings against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on January 10.
• House Republicans have identified migration as a political vulnerability for Democrats ahead of a challenging election year where Democrats are widely tipped to win back the House.
• Democrats and moderate Senate Republicans, will likely fear that the hardline House GOP position on the border may be designed to achieve the secondary objective of quashing further aid to Ukraine.
• A more Ukraine-positive analysis would point out that hardball GOP tactics won major concessions from Democrats throughout 2023. Since assuming the speakership and gaining access to more sensitive intelligence briefings, Johnson has pivoted to a more supportive position on Ukraine and Johnson may assume that Democrats have more to give on the border before agreeing to a broader compromise.