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Government Announces First Quarterly Fiscal Surplus Since 2008

ARGENTINA
  • In a television address last night, President Milei announced the country’s first quarterly fiscal surplus since 2008, which came in at 0.2% of GDP. Latest data also revealed an ARS 625.03bn primary budget surplus in March, the third surplus in a row. Milei said that the government will stick with austerity, maintaining his promise to avoid deficits throughout his term. The Q1 surplus was driven by expenditure cuts, including halting nearly 90% of public works and reducing transfers to provincial governments by three quarters.
  • On the data front today, economic activity is expected to have fallen by 6% y/y in February, following a 4.3% contraction the month before (2000BST/1500ET). Meanwhile, Interior Minister Guillermo Francos is due to speak at an event with provincial finance ministers and local investors in Buenos Aires from 1310BST.
    • Feb. Economic Activity Index YoY, est. -6.0%, prior -4.3%
  • In other news, Burford Capital is reported to have asked a US judge to give it control of state oil company YPF as part of its effort to collect on a $16bn court judgment against the government. Burford asked to be granted the 51% stake in YPF currently held by Argentina’s federal and provincial governments.
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