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NBP: Governor Refuses To Provide Forward Guidance

NBP
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

The Governor refuses to provide forward guidance and declares data-dependence, in line with a change in approach to forward-looking communications announced at the previous meeting. Last month the Governor said that he would cease to provide detailed commentary on the interest-rate outlook because it was "misrepresented" by analysts and reporters.

  • However, the Governor mentions some factors that may influence MPC decisions later this year. The list includes (1) easing wage growth, (2) unspecified external disinflationary shocks, and (3) lower electricity tariffs.
  • If any of these materialises, it will be fed into the forecasting model and inform MPC decisions. He stresses that the NBP will be able to cut interest rates only if inflation peaks and forecasts show its decline over the subsequent quarters.
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The Governor refuses to provide forward guidance and declares data-dependence, in line with a change in approach to forward-looking communications announced at the previous meeting. Last month the Governor said that he would cease to provide detailed commentary on the interest-rate outlook because it was "misrepresented" by analysts and reporters.

  • However, the Governor mentions some factors that may influence MPC decisions later this year. The list includes (1) easing wage growth, (2) unspecified external disinflationary shocks, and (3) lower electricity tariffs.
  • If any of these materialises, it will be fed into the forecasting model and inform MPC decisions. He stresses that the NBP will be able to cut interest rates only if inflation peaks and forecasts show its decline over the subsequent quarters.