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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NBP
Governor Glapinski caveats his initial comments emphasising the return to the target, noting that inflation will almost certainly rebound in 2H2024 due to the expected phase-out of anti-inflation measures.
- The two key reasons for the expected rebound in inflation are:
- the return of the 5% VAT rate on food (tentatively announced by the government, pending final decision), which would boost inflation by around 0.9pp, according to the NBP's forecasting model;
- the termination of energy, electricity and heat price caps - but decisions on that front will not be known for some time.
- The main theme of the MPC's statement, in the Governor's view, is "uncertainty" - which is the reason why the MPC keeps interest rates unchanged, with the Council preferring to err on the side of caution.
Fig. 1: NBP - Projected Inflation Paths. The red line represents the inflation path if anti-inflation measures are terminated in July. The green line represents the inflation path if anti-inflation measures are extended.
Source: NBP
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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