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Gov't Coalition Retains Plurality But Short Of Majority In Latest Poll

POLAND

Latest opinion poll from Social Changes shows the governing United Right coaliton, dominated by the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), remains the most popular political movement in Poland, but continues to poll short of what would be required to retain a majority in parliament.

  • Social Changes poll with Poland 2050 included: United Right: 32% (+1), Civic Coalition: 23% (-1), Poland 2050: 22% (+3), The Left: 9% (-1), Confederation: 8% (+1), Kukiz'15: 4% (=), Polish People's Party: 2% (=). +/- vs. 25-28 Dec 2020. Fieldwork: 1-5 Jan 2021. Sample size: 1,090
  • Social Changes poll with Poland 2050 not included: United Right: 35% (+2), Civic Coalition: 27% (-2), The Left: 12%, Confederation: 10% (+1), Kukiz'15: 4%, Polish People's Party: 3% (-1). +/- vs. 1-5 January 2021. Fieldwork: 8-11 January 2021. Sample size: 1,085
  • The risk of a snap election has loomed ever since deep fissures were exposed within the United Right in late-2020 over an animal rights bill. Should the gov't collapse the centre-right Civic Coalition could be well placed to form a coalition with the Poland 2050 movement of TV personality and former presidential candidate Szymon Holownia, a big tent populist group that has gained significant support in recent weeks.
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