AUSTRALIA DATA
The headline March jobs figure was weaker than expected showing employment down 6.6k but February was revised up 1.1k to 117.6k. Some payback was expected and given February’s outsized reading, but it was relatively muted and importantly focused in part-time jobs with full-time continuing to rise. The unemployment rate rose 0.1pp to 3.8%. Data show that the labour market remains tight and so the RBA’s stance is unlikely to change.
- The April employment report on May 16 might not give greater clarity on underlying labour conditions as it could be impacted by school holidays, as April 2023 was. Therefore it is important to look through the monthly volatility at averages and quarterly changes.
- The economy generated just over 10k more jobs in Q1 than the increase in the labour force, thus signalling that despite slower growth labour demand remains robust. The shift back towards full-time jobs and the increase in hours worked are consistent with this.
- Employment growth slowed to 2.7% y/y in Q1 from 3.0% in Q4 – the RBA is forecasting 2.0% for Q2. Job creation rose in Q1 with 122.3k new positions after Q4’s 52.9k but below Q1 2023’s 157k. Employment growth shifted back towards full-time (FT), signalling improved employer confidence. FT rose 125.9k in Q1 (Q4 -44.3k) whereas part-time (PT) fell 3.7k (Q4 +97.3k), the first drop since Q4 2022.
- Hours worked posted their second straight increase in March to be marginally higher on the quarter and up 1.7% y/y with the strength again concentrated in FT. Underemployment fell 0.1pp as a result.
- The decline in employment with the 0.1% m/m rise in the labour force meant that the unemployment rate ticked up after its sharp February fall. But it was a high 3.8% coming in at 3.843%, so not far from consensus’ 3.9% and prone to an upward revision next month. The RBA expects 4.2% in Q2.
Australia employment vs hours 3/3m average annualised %
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