Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- We expect continued focus on the unemployment rate as a better gauge of broader labor market conditions amidst well-documented concerns payrolls growth could be overestimating jobs growth (the Q1 QCEW used for the preliminary benchmark revisions is going to be watched particularly closely on Aug 21).
- That’s doubly so this month with analysts generally expecting it to be less sensitive to any weather disruption.
- June saw a small surprise increase to 4.05% against consensus of 4.0% but one made a little larger by some analysts looking for a 3.9% print. In doing so it has already increased back to the 4.0% the median FOMC participant forecast for 4Q24.
- Consensus looks for another rounded 4.1% in July but it’s starting to get close to the 4.2% median forecast for out in 4Q25, as part of a forecast that back in June helped see the median participant anticipate just one 25bp cut this year before 100bp of cuts through 2025.
- Note though that the three consecutive monthly increases is unusual for recent months (and the last two a sizeable 0.10 and 0.09pps) which could see a temporary dip this month.
- Expect Sahm Rule triggers to again see prominence in analyst notes as a 4.1% reading would see it climb further to 0.44 when calculating from unrounded data, fractionally shy of the 0.5 that historically has been indicative of recession.
- Fed Chair Powell did however look to get ahead of this in yesterday’s FOMC press conference when asked about the rule: “I would call it a statistical thing that has happened through history. A "statistical regularity" is what I would call it. It is not an economic rule where it is telling you something must happen.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok