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Greenback Adds to Post-Fed Gains

FOREX
  • The greenback is extending post-Fed rate hike strength, with markets continuing to bring forward expectations of another 75bps rate hike at December's meeting. EUR/USD is through 0.9800 and GBP/USD has taken out support at 1.1300. On a technical basis, the greenback has room to rally further, with the RSI still well short of any overbought signal.
  • This has put EUR/USD back below key support at 0.9812 today (0.9821 yesterday). This marks the top of the bear channel that was breached last week. A clear break of this support would undermine the recent bullish outlook and signal scope for a deeper pullback.
  • NOK is among the poorest performers in G10 so far Thursday, with the Norges Bank decision delivering a smaller-than-forecast 25bps hike. The move signals the end of the bank's front-loading approach to policy, effectively committing the bank to a smaller pace of tightening going forward. EUR/NOK spiked to 10.3710 before moderating.
  • Focus turns to the Bank of England rate decision, at which the MPC are seen raising rates by 75% to put the bank rate at 3.00%. Nonetheless, there remains uncertainty and downside risk to the decision today given recent acute financial market fragility.
  • Weekly US jobless claims, the ISM services index and the final October PMI are the data highlights.
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