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Greenback at May Highs, NOK Slips on Persistent FX Sales

FOREX
  • The greenback trades firmer in early Europe, helping tip the USD Index to new multi-month highs on the final trading day of May. For now, prices remain capped ahead of the 76.4% retracement for the March - April downleg, crossing at 104.68. Progress through here would open the best levels since early March for the currency.
  • The clearance of the first hurdle for the debt ceiling deal has been a boon for the US currency, while signs of slipping inflationary pressures in Europe are working against the single currency. Regional German CPI data is generally suggesting downside risks to the national headline later today, while French inflation also came in well below median consensus. Italy provided the only fly in the ointment, with HICP ahead of expectations, helping slow the EUR's decline and help EUR/USD off lows of 1.0659.
  • NOK is again the weakest currency in G10, with market focus on this morning's update from the Norges Bank on their planned daily FX purchases for June. The quantity of daily NOK sales are to slow from NOK 1.4bln to NOK 1.3bln - a number clearly falling short of market expectations that are eventually expecting a switch to NOK buying later this year. EUR/NOK spiked upon the release, touching 12.061 before fading back to pre-data levels. This keeps yesterday's cycle highs intact for now at 12.1064.
  • Focus for the session ahead turns to prelim German CPI reading for May, the MNI Chicago PMI and Canadian GDP data for March. The central bank speaker slate consists of appearances from Fed's Collins, Harker & Jefferson as well as BoE's Mann.
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