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Greenback Extends Post-CPI Pullback

FOREX
  • The greenback is extending the post-CPI pullback, falling against all others in G10. The USD Index is now comfortably through the 100-dma, potentially opening another leg lower for the dollar. 107.037 Fib retracement marks first support, and a break through puts the dollar at the weakest level since mid-August.
  • This has put USD/JPY through the September intervention lows and below Y140.00 for the first time since early September. This opens 138.64 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • USD/JPY's sharp downtick puts JPY top of the G10 pile, with SEK and AUD similarly outperforming. AUD/USD prints the best level since mid-September, with the 100-dma of 0.6703 the next upside level.
  • Focus turns to the prelim Uni. of Michigan release for November, with 1-yr inflation expectations seen ticking higher to 5.1% from 5.0%. The central bank speaker slate picks up, with ECB's Panetta, de Guindos, Lane, de Cos, Centeno and Nagel on the docket as well as BoE's Haskel and Tenreyro.
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