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Greenback Extends Slide, CNY Reaches 200-day MA

FOREX

Seeing further greenback weakness across the board, with AUD, NZD and GBP the most notable performers in G10 amid the more optimistic sentiment across equity markets. This is also filtering through to significant gains for some EM currencies, notably the Brazilian Real and Colombian Peso are enjoying ~2% gains.

  • Wires also picking up that the Onshore Yuan has traded to the best level of the day and breached its 200day moving average against the USD. It is worth highlighting that this is the first test of this average since April 2022. This follows an earlier break of the same average for USDCNH, which has gathered momentum across the session.
  • Continued China asset optimism is spurring CNH outperformance. Yesterday saw 12.75bn yuan of net inflows to mainland stocks via the stock connect in HK. This was the strongest daily net inflow since mid-November last year.
  • During US trading on Thursday the Golden Dragon index rose a further 1.61%, defying weaker US equity market sentiment. The index is now up close to 14% since the start of the year. The chart below plots the ratio of China to global equities, against USD/CNH (which is inverted).
  • Further support for the housing sector via lower mortgage rates for first home buyers (if house prices drop for 3 straight months) was announced. This measure was first introduced in September last year. A cap on real estate commissions is also aimed at boosting housing demand.

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