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Greenback Gains as Bond Market Correction Tips US 10y North of 4.00%

FOREX
  • The greenback trades well, firmer against all others in G10 early Friday as the correction in bond markets continues. The US 10y yield has crested above the psychological 4.00% mark that had contained prices in Thursday trade, helping aid a tailwind to the greenback.
  • Elsewhere, the CNH is modestly outperforming, defying the strong dollar backdrop amid reports that state-owned Chinese banks are swapping CNY for USD in the domestic market, to sell in spot and pressure the USD/CNY rate across the week. USD/CNH has slipped off the overnight high of 7.1803 ahead of the NY crossover, in contrast with the likes of EUR/USD, which remain under pressure.
  • Eurozone CPI came in inline with expectations, doing little to shift market thinking. ECB rate cut pricing across 2024 continues to oscillate just below 150bps for the calendar year - a factor that's kept EUR/GBP offered and pressed to new '24 pullback lows.
  • GBP is mixed, but is holding ground against the AUD. GBP/AUD is higher for a third session, and is nearing the first few layers of key resistance at 1.9008 and 1.9046, the 50- and 200-dmas respectively.
  • Focus Friday rests on the nonfarm payrolls release, with markets expecting the US to have added 175k jobs over the month of December, tipping the unemployment rate higher by 0.1ppts to 3.8%. Both AHE and the unemployment rate are seen marginally dovish vs November, but exaggerated by rounding and with primary dealer analysts tilted to a small hawkish surprise across both categories.
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