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Greenback Maintains Downward Bias Ahead of Critical Week

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  • The USD index is trading with a 0.82% decline on Monday, continuing the weaker price action seen post US employment and ISM data on Friday. Greenback weakness comes ahead of a critical week, with both the US CPI release as well as the beginning of the US earnings season to come.
  • Among the majors, the single currency is outperforming with EURUSD, extending its recovery to print fresh seven-month highs above 1.0750.
  • The Japanese Yen showed relative underperformance in European trade and was the sole currency falling against the USD. However, USDJPY’s bounce to 132.66 was short-lived before fresh selling emerged and the pair finds itself gravitating towards the overnight 131.30 lows approaching the APAC crossover.
    • Tech levels of note remain somewhat unchanged, with 133.73 marking the 20-day EMA. The key support and trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is 129.52, Jan 3 low. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 134.77.
  • Despite major equity indices reversing a significant portion of their gains throughout US trade, the likes of AUD, NZD and GBP have remained buoyant, gaining a tailwind from the renewed optimistic sentiment. AUD/USD has now traded close to 4% above last week's lows, keeping momentum tilted in favour of the bulls for now. Prices now hold within range of the $0.69 handle, which marks a sizeable expiry for Wednesday's NY cut, with A$1.6bln notional set to roll off.
  • Central bank governors on the speaker slate on Tuesday with Fed’s Powell, BOC’s Macklem and the BOJs Kuroda all participating in a panel discussion titled "Central bank independence and new risks: climate" at the Riksbank’s International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, in Stockholm.
  • The data focus is primarily on US CPI, scheduled on Thursday.
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  • The USD index is trading with a 0.82% decline on Monday, continuing the weaker price action seen post US employment and ISM data on Friday. Greenback weakness comes ahead of a critical week, with both the US CPI release as well as the beginning of the US earnings season to come.
  • Among the majors, the single currency is outperforming with EURUSD, extending its recovery to print fresh seven-month highs above 1.0750.
  • The Japanese Yen showed relative underperformance in European trade and was the sole currency falling against the USD. However, USDJPY’s bounce to 132.66 was short-lived before fresh selling emerged and the pair finds itself gravitating towards the overnight 131.30 lows approaching the APAC crossover.
    • Tech levels of note remain somewhat unchanged, with 133.73 marking the 20-day EMA. The key support and trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is 129.52, Jan 3 low. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 134.77.
  • Despite major equity indices reversing a significant portion of their gains throughout US trade, the likes of AUD, NZD and GBP have remained buoyant, gaining a tailwind from the renewed optimistic sentiment. AUD/USD has now traded close to 4% above last week's lows, keeping momentum tilted in favour of the bulls for now. Prices now hold within range of the $0.69 handle, which marks a sizeable expiry for Wednesday's NY cut, with A$1.6bln notional set to roll off.
  • Central bank governors on the speaker slate on Tuesday with Fed’s Powell, BOC’s Macklem and the BOJs Kuroda all participating in a panel discussion titled "Central bank independence and new risks: climate" at the Riksbank’s International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, in Stockholm.
  • The data focus is primarily on US CPI, scheduled on Thursday.