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Greenback Maintains Downward Bias, NOK Tops G10 Leaderboard

FOREX
  • Markets latched on to the latest US inflation headlines to continue selling the greenback on Monday. Used-car prices in the US fell 4.2% in June, their biggest monthly drop since the early days of the pandemic, bolstering hopes for further downside surprises this week in the June US CPI figures. Despite registering early moderate gains on Monday, the USD index has declined 0.25% across the session, hovering just above the 102 mark as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • NOK tops the G10 FX table following higher-than-expected CPI for June: core CPI accelerated sharply to 7.0% vs. Exp. 6.6% to print another cycle high and provide another headache for the Norges Bank, who likely now have to consider faster policy action at the August rate decision. USD/NOK has dropped over 1% and looks set to test the June lows at 10.4682.
  • The Japanese Yen has posted an impressive reversal amid the downtick for US yields, with USDJPY declining around 160 pips from the early 143.01 highs. The move extends the sharp move lower seen late last week after the pair met strong pivot resistance around the 145 handle. The pair now looks set to close below 142.24, the former bull channel top. A sustained break would signal scope for a deeper correction and opens 140.30, the 50-day EMA.
  • Price action for cable has been reinforcing bullish trend conditions and following the strong 100 pip bounce of today’s lows, attention is once again on key resistance at 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection and Friday’s intraday high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2877, the Apr 25 2022 high.
  • Tuesday morning kicks off with UK jobs data, final German inflation and German ZEW figures. The focus will then quickly turn to a busy Wednesday which includes US CPI data, the Bank of Canada and RBNZ rate decisions.
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