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Greenback Maintains Upward Trajectory, Erases Friday’s Pullback

FOREX
  • The US dollar trades firmly in the green on Monday, with the USD Index (+0.76%) recouping the entirety of Friday’s pullback and narrowing the gap with most recent cycle highs, situated at 103.928.
  • Price action during the second half of Monday trade has generally been a slow grind, with a UK market holiday keeping many traders on the sidelines ahead of key risk events later this week - most notably Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as well as Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls release.
  • Strength in the greenback has been broad based, however, Scandinavian FX are the notable underperformers, ranking at the bottom of the G10 pile, closely followed by weakness in CHF, CNH and GBP.
  • GBPUSD (-0.72%) has slipped back below the 1.2500 mark with last Friday’s gains considered technically corrective following last week’s overall acceleration of the downtrend. 1.2412, the Apr 28 low remains the bear trigger before 1.2375, a Fibonacci projection of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing.
  • AUDUSD relatively outperforms, retreating just 0.3%, however the pair remains in close proximity to the recent lows amid the downward momentum for global equity benchmarks. Last week’s price action resulted in a breach of 0.7095, the Feb 24 low, and reinforces bearish conditions. Nearest support is seen at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low ahead of the RBA announcement due overnight. The much firmer than expected Q122 CPI print in Australia may have tilted the scales towards a cash rate hike at tomorrow’s May meeting.
  • Aside from the RBA, both Japan and China are out for local holidays which may impact local liquidity during the APAC session. Eurozone unemployment figures along with US JOLTS data headline the Tuesday calendar.
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