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Greenback On Top to Start Busy Week

FOREX
  • The dollar is the strongest currency so far in G10, although the USD Index remains below last week's highs and the cycle highs printed at the beginning of September. Equities hold close to last week's lows, reinforcing a general risk-off theme ahead of a solidly busy week that culminates in Wednesday's FOMC decision. The Fed are seen raising rates by a further 75bps this month, with tightening risks abound across the slew of other developed and emerging market CBs this week.
  • NOK is among the poorer performers, with weaker energy prices across Europe working against commodity-tied currencies. EUR/NOK is now north of 10.25, extending the winning streak off the late August lows. The cross has now printed higher highs for five consecutive sessions, narrowing the gap with major resistance at 10.32, the 76.4% retracement of the June - August downleg. Moves come ahead of this week's Norges Bank rate decision, at which the Bank are again under pressure to raise rates to head off hot core inflation.
  • USD/JPY is gaining ahead of the NY crossover, amid thin flows due to the UK market holiday. The pair is now north of Y143.00 and the trend signal remains bullish with key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, Fibonacci projections.
  • Focus turns to the US NAHB Housing Market Index as well as the Canadian industrial product price release. ECB speak could take some focus, with de Guindos, de Cos and Villeroy all on the docket.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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