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Greenback Reverses Opening Gains, AUDNZD Prints Fresh Cycle Highs

FOREX
  • News of the Trump assassination attempt and increased odds of a Trump win in November prompted a 0.15% gap higher for the USD index to start the week. However, a recovery for both equities and core fixed income has prompted the DXY to edge lower through the European session, and tracks close to unchanged levels heading into the NY crossover.
  • USDJPY has unsurprisingly posted the largest range across the majors, as volatility remains high in the aftermath of last week’s US data and supposed BOJ intervention. USDJPY reached as high as 158.42 but has since reverted back below the 158 handle to trade around 157.80 at typing. Last week’s lows around 157.40 mark the first area of interest on the downside before more notable support at 156.83, a Fibonacci retracement. 159.75 is the first resistance, the 20-day EMA.
  • In similar vein, EURUSD has risen back above 1.0900 and GBPUSD is hovering just below 1.30, a level that would place cable at the highest level since July last year.
  • NZD underperforms across G10, falling 0.35% against both the dollar and the AUD. The AU-NZ 2yr swap continues to tick higher, now back at November 2020 levels which continues to bolster the AUD/NZD rally, rising to a fresh cycle high of 1.1135.
  • Scandinavian FX also underperforms, with USDNOK trading 0.5% higher on Monday, however, a more notable laggard has been MXN, dropping over 1% given its beta to Trump election odds.
  • Looking ahead, the US Empire Survey is due and Fed Chair Powell’s Rubenstein interview is firmly in focus for his last appearance before the FOMC blackout.
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