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Greenback Softer While Equity Picture Improves

FOREX
  • The greenback trades lower early Monday, extending the downtick off last week's highs. Early dollar weakness is accompanied general strength in equities at the European open, with cash markets on the continent universally higher, while US stock futures indicate a positive open later today.
  • Greenback weakness has put the USD Index well through last Wednesday's lows to extend the pullback from the Thursday high to around 1.75%.
  • The main beneficiaries so far have been GBP (ahead of key political and data risks later this week) and the single currency. EUR/USD now trades just shy of 1.0150 and the 20-day EMA at 1.0270. A break here would highlight the possibility of a short-term correction from the base of the bear channel. This makes Thursday's ECB rate decision key going forward, with any hawkish turn from the central bank likely to prompt a sharp upside move in the currency.
  • GBP's outperformance today marks an extension of the corrective bounce in the pair, but markets need to top 1.2049, the 20-day EMA to secure any further move higher. For now, however, the outlook remains bearish, with the downtrend still initially targeting 1.1673, the 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing.
  • Data releases are few and far between Monday, with the central bank speaker slate similarly quiet. Both the ECB and the Fed have entered their pre-decision media purdah, which could mute volatility headed into both their respective rate announcements this week and the next.
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