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Greenback Strength Fades, But Holds Bulk of Post-Fed Rally

FOREX
  • The greenback trades on the backfoot, with currency markets reversing a very small part of the week's post-Fed outperformance. EUR/USD remains below the $0.98 handle, but has recovered off the lows of $0.9730 printed yesterday.
  • Price action in the pair resulted in a move below a key area of support around 0.9812, marking the top of the bear channel that was breached last week. The breach of this support undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.9633 initially, the Oct 13 low. Firm resistance is seen at 0.9976, the Nov 2 high.
  • The beneficiaries of the USD pullback have largely been AUD and NZD, which outperform alongside stronger China equity markets overnight. Moves follow continued speculation that China could ease their COVID policy approach, with reports that authorities are planning to end flight suspensions - a move that could materially increase international travel into/out of China. (Note: China's ForMin have denied any knowledge)
  • Focus turns to the October payrolls release later today, with markets expecting job gains of 195k and a modest uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.6%, showcasing a labour market that remains solid, but is sequentially slowing in its expansion. The Canadian jobs data is also on the docket, with BoE's Pill and Fed's Collins also due to speak.
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