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Greenback Trades On Surer Footing, USDJPY Back Above 147.00

FOREX
  • Price action has been subdued on Tuesday across the G10 currency space, not particularly surprising given tomorrows release of US CPI and the ECB rate decision on Thursday. With market participants happy to sit on the sidelines, the greenback has eroded a portion of its Monday losses with USDJPY leading the charge, rising back above 147.00.
  • USDJPY stands 0.4% higher on the day and has been slowly grinding off the overnight 1.4644 lows. The pair is yet to narrow the gap with last Friday’s close at 147.83 which remains the most obvious topside target as we approach a busy data schedule this week, which includes US inflation and retail sales data.
  • The resumption of the uptrend last week opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. On the downside, 144.45 represents the key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. A break of this level is required to highlight a short-term top.
  • Despite a marginal uptick in ECB pricing ahead of Thursday’s close call decision, the Euro actually trades a little softer, in line with the bid in the USD index. AUD, NZD and CAD all trade moderately on the back foot as well, amid weaker global equity benchmarks.
  • EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation. The bull channel breakout last week reinforced the current bearish condition and has opened 1.0668 next, the Jun 7 low.
  • UK GDP on Wednesday morning before all focus turns to US inflation data. Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.2% M/M in August in what’s likely only a minor uptick from unrounded 0.16% M/M readings in both June and July.
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