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Greenback Weakens As May/June Fed Cut Not Categorically Ruled Out

FOREX
  • Dovish interpretations of the March FOMC press conference have weighed on the greenback late Wednesday, with the USD index reversing roughly 0.7% lower from intra-day highs, sitting down 0.3% on the session as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • The focus has been on the Japanese Yen, following the earlier price action in USDJPY narrowing the gap substantially to the multi-decade inflection point at 151.91-95. The key resistance level has held, for now, and the ensuing reversal saw USDJPY briefly print fresh session lows at 150.73 before paring some of these losses back above 151.00. Initial firm support remains much lower at 149.06, the 20-day EMA, while overall, technical bulls remain in the driver’s seat.
  • Regarding intra-day adjustments, US equities reaching fresh all-time highs have underpinned the Australian dollar, the standout performer on Wednesday. AUDUSD trades 0.80% in the green and clearance of resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the recent bull cycle and open 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • Half a percent gains for the likes of EUR, GBP, NZD and CAD show moderate outperformance to the DXY’s adjustment, with equities strength providing the key tailwind. This has also filtered through to strength in EM currencies, with ZAR, BRL and MXN all outperforming.
  • GBPUSD will be in focus Thursday, as the BOE decision is due. Key resistance for the pair is at 1.2894, a break of which would resume the uptrend.
  • Australia employment kicks off the data docket Thursday before flash PMIs from the Eurozone. The SNB will also decide on rates. Jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing and Flash PMIs highlight the US data docket.
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