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Greenback Weakens Following Soft US Data, USDMXN Surges Post Sheinbaum Election

FOREX
  • Following the weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and prices paid data in the US, treasury yields are seen 9bps lower across much of the curve. The main beneficiary of this in FX has been the Japanese yen and the Swiss Franc, while the Canadian dollar underperforms.
  • USDJPY sits 0.80% lower on the session and slid just below the 156.00 handle in late trade, nearly a percent below the prior session highs of 157.47. For bears, a stronger reversal would again refocus attention on key support at 154.65, the 50-day EMA, and 153.69, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low.
  • In similar vein, USDCHF is 0.78% in the red as the Swiss Franc continues its outperformance that was kick started late last week following Hawkish remarks from SNB’s Jordan. We pointed out that moves in both EURCHF & USDCHF appeared corrective at this stage, at least from a technical standpoint, however tomorrow’s key CPI data will likely be the next key driver of short-term CHF sentiment and crucial in forming expectations for the June 20 SNB meeting/decision.
  • In emerging markets, all eyes were on the Mexican peso after the victory for president elect, Claudia Sheinbaum. Concerns over MORENA supermajorities in Congress have prompted some sharp peso weakness with USDMXN currently rising 3.6% on the session, and briefly printing a high of 17.7377.
  • Swiss CPI kicks off the data docket on Tuesday before US JOLTS data. US focus then turns to ISM Services PMI and to Friday’s employment report. Elsewhere, central bank decisions in Canada and for the ECB are highlights this week.

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