MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES -0.6% M/M (FCST: 0.5%)

MNI BRIEF: Q3 Output Gap Hits 18th Negative Result - BOJ

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY1.1 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1887 Weds; -2.33% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bostic Says Bumpy Inflation Calls For Caution

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, January 7

MNI: FRANCE DEC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 89

MNI: GERMANY NOV FACTORY ORDERS -5.4% M/M

MNI: SWEDEN FLASH DEC CPIF +1.5% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

ILS: Greenback Weakness Weighs On USD/ILS, Participants Parse BoI Rate Decision

ILS
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsMiddle East

USD/ILS trades with a bearish bias, which is aided by broader greenback weakness, as the shekel sits close to the bottom of the EMEA pile. The rate last deals at 3.6209, down 110 pips on the session, after printing its worst levels in almost three weeks. Bears continue to take aim at Dec 9 low of 3.5487, while bulls look for a rebound above the 50-DMA (3.6685) and towards Dec 30 high of 3.7064.

  • The Bank of Israel left the base rate unchanged at 4.50% yesterday, in line with expectations. The Committee assessed that the balance of inflation risk was skewed to the upside due to the various challenges related to the ongoing war. We have seen mixed interpretations of the MPC's communications:
    • Goldman Sachs wrote that the central bank's guidance was "incrementally dovish" as Governor Yaron "dropped the mention of a hike" and "unlike his comments in December, he did not compare rate cuts to pouring gasoline on a fire." In their view, "absent a surprise deterioration in either geopolitical uncertainty or the fiscal outlook, the main variable the BoI will consider before recommencing a cutting cycle will be inflation." If it surprises to the downside, Goldman see a decent chance of a cut in 1H2025.
    • JP Morgan wrote that "a fairly conservative stance in communications was a somewhat hawkish surprise." They noted that the BoI's rate outlook was "somewhat more cautious than market expectations going into this meeting," while Governor Yaron "tried to temper market expectations about the policy easing." They believe that "any cuts are assumed for the second half of the year," with a total of 50bp pencilled in for 2H2025. However, they believe that risks to this forecast are skewed in a dovish direction.
  • The TA-35 Index gains for the sixth consecutive trading day, refreshing cyclical highs as a result. It last sits 0.3% higher on the session.
309 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

USD/ILS trades with a bearish bias, which is aided by broader greenback weakness, as the shekel sits close to the bottom of the EMEA pile. The rate last deals at 3.6209, down 110 pips on the session, after printing its worst levels in almost three weeks. Bears continue to take aim at Dec 9 low of 3.5487, while bulls look for a rebound above the 50-DMA (3.6685) and towards Dec 30 high of 3.7064.

  • The Bank of Israel left the base rate unchanged at 4.50% yesterday, in line with expectations. The Committee assessed that the balance of inflation risk was skewed to the upside due to the various challenges related to the ongoing war. We have seen mixed interpretations of the MPC's communications:
    • Goldman Sachs wrote that the central bank's guidance was "incrementally dovish" as Governor Yaron "dropped the mention of a hike" and "unlike his comments in December, he did not compare rate cuts to pouring gasoline on a fire." In their view, "absent a surprise deterioration in either geopolitical uncertainty or the fiscal outlook, the main variable the BoI will consider before recommencing a cutting cycle will be inflation." If it surprises to the downside, Goldman see a decent chance of a cut in 1H2025.
    • JP Morgan wrote that "a fairly conservative stance in communications was a somewhat hawkish surprise." They noted that the BoI's rate outlook was "somewhat more cautious than market expectations going into this meeting," while Governor Yaron "tried to temper market expectations about the policy easing." They believe that "any cuts are assumed for the second half of the year," with a total of 50bp pencilled in for 2H2025. However, they believe that risks to this forecast are skewed in a dovish direction.
  • The TA-35 Index gains for the sixth consecutive trading day, refreshing cyclical highs as a result. It last sits 0.3% higher on the session.