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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
The German Greens are set to nominate their party's candidate for chancellor this morning at 1100CET (0500ET, 1000BST), with UK-educated lawyer Annalena Baerbock the favourite to receive the nomination.
- Baerbock is up against writer and former regional minister Robert Habeck for the nomination. There has been little controversy or rancour during the contest, with the Greens presented a united front ahead of the elections
- This comes in stark contrast to the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The two candidates for the nomination, CDU head Armin Laschet and CSU head Markus Soeder are still contesting for the position, missing a Sunday deadline to come to a decision.
- After the CDU presidium offered its support to Laschet last week it seems the needle had swung towards the North Rhine-Westphalia minister-president. However, as the week went on Soeder (more popular in opinion polls) was able to gain more support among CDU-CSU members of the Bundestag.
- Bild reporting around 100 CDU-CSU members have called on Laschet to withdraw by Tuesday or they will call a vote of members, which he is seen as likely to lose.
- Betting markets have swung back behind Soeder as the likely victor as well, with a 71.9% implied probability of becoming the next chancellor according to bettors. Laschet is given a 14.7% implied probability.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Becoming Next German Chancellor
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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