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Grind Lower Ahead Of Data, Refunding


Treasuries have edged lower in overnight trade with continued bear steepening pressure in the curve. ADP and ISM Svcs data eyed along with Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and a decent Fed speaker slate.

  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) down 3.5/32 at 136-26.5 (L: 136-26 - the Jan 22 low / H: 137-00.5)
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.1171%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 0.4511%, 10-Yr is up 2.1bps at 1.1169%, and 30-Yr is up 2.4bps at 1.8936%.
  • Stock futures in the green (despite a stronger dollar on the margin), but off European morning highs.
  • Jan ADP Employment at 0815ET. Final Jan PMIs at 0945ET, but more attention on ISM Services shortly thereafter at 1000ET.
  • Main supply event is Treasury qtly refunding estimate at 0830ET; our preview went out yesterday (link here). 1130ET sees $55B of 105-/154-day bill sale. NY Fed buys ~$6.025B of 4.5-7Y Tsys.
  • Plenty of Fed Speakers: Minn's Kashkari (0830ET), StL's Bullard (1300ET), Philly's Harker (1400ET), and Cleveland's Mester and Chicago's Evans (both 1700ET).

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