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Grinding Higher on China-US Sanctions

BOND SUMMARY
  • Headlines that China may retaliate and place sanctions on US officials have reversed some early weakness in fixed income. Bond markets had got off to a fairly slow start with Japan out on holiday.
  • Bunds are the outperformers followed by gilts and Treasuries. Equity markets are fairly mixed with the IBEX35, FTSE100 and Dow Jones futures all a bit higher but Nasdaq, DAX, CAC and FTSE MIB futures close to flat on the day.
  • The week ahead see UK labour market and activity data for June released alongside Q2 GDP which is also due for release for a number of European countries and the Eurozone aggregate. In the US, focus will be on CPI, claims, retail sales and industrial production. The latter two of these are due Friday and will give us our best indication yet of July activity.
  • This week we are due to hear from the Fed's Evans (today), Barkin and Daly (tomorrow), Rosengren, Kaplan and Daly again (Wed) and Bostic (Thurs). There are no scheduled BOE MPC speakers or ECB Executive Board speakers.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-1+ today at 140-00 with 10y UST yields down -0.7bp at 0.558% and 2y yields down -0.2bp at 0.128%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.24 today at 177.41 with 10y Bund yields down -1.4bp at -0.524% and Schatz yields down -0.7bp at -0.698%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.17 today at 138.14 with 10y yields down -1.0bp at 0.127% and 2y yields down -1.5bp at -0.41%.

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