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Grinding Lower On Taper Talk, Supply

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries continued to grind lower overnight, as FOMC members continue to signal openness to slowing the pace of Tsy purchases this year, and 10-Yr supply eyed.

  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) down 6/32 at 136-7.5 (L: 136-05.5 / H: 136-12.5)
  • The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.1449%, 5-Yr is up 1bps at 0.5154%, 10-Yr is up 0.9bps at 1.1547%, and 30-Yr is down 0.1bps at 1.8825%.
  • Several key Fed speakers today in the context of some participants talking in recent days about a 2021 QE taper. Brainard at 0935ET, KC's George at 1300ET, Boston's Rosengren at 1400ET. Rosengren/Kaplan/Kashkari on a panel at 1100ET but unlikely to be much on current mon pol.
  • In contrast, light on data: Nov JOLTS at 1000ET. Dec NFIB came in weak.
  • House Democrats set to issue resolution for VP Pence to invoke 25th amendment to remove Pres Trump, but this is seen futile (BBG reported Pence and Trump agreed to work together through the inauguration). But is precursor to House impeachment vote, possibly Wednesday.
  • We get $60B total in 42-/119-day bill auctions at 1130ET, and $38B 10Y Note auction at 1300ET. NY Fed buys ~$6.025B of 4.5-7Y Tsys.

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