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US DATA: Grocery Prices Come In On The Hot Side

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The headline categories of inflation also came in on the hot side in November:

  • Headline CPI itself was 0.31% M/M, an accelerateion from 0.24% in October (for a  Y/Y rate that at 2.749 just barely rounds down to the consensus 2.7% but still a pickup from 2.60% prior).
  • Gasoline prices bounced as expected to 0.5% M/M (0.3% expected, -0.9% prior), with energy inflation overall inline (0.2% as expected, vs 0.0% prior).
  • The large upside surprise was in food prices: up 0.39% M/M, vs 0.24% exp./0.16% prior. That's just slightly below the 0.40% in September which had been a 20-month high.
  • However, grocery prices ("food at home") rocketed higher to 0.47% from 0.11% prior, for a 24-month high (and vs a 12-month average of 0.13% M/M SA). Per  the BLS, ". Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased".
  • "Food away from home"  (eg restaurants) maintained its strength, at 0.28%, from 0.24% prior (it's averaged 0.30% M/M SA for the last 12 months).
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The headline categories of inflation also came in on the hot side in November:

  • Headline CPI itself was 0.31% M/M, an accelerateion from 0.24% in October (for a  Y/Y rate that at 2.749 just barely rounds down to the consensus 2.7% but still a pickup from 2.60% prior).
  • Gasoline prices bounced as expected to 0.5% M/M (0.3% expected, -0.9% prior), with energy inflation overall inline (0.2% as expected, vs 0.0% prior).
  • The large upside surprise was in food prices: up 0.39% M/M, vs 0.24% exp./0.16% prior. That's just slightly below the 0.40% in September which had been a 20-month high.
  • However, grocery prices ("food at home") rocketed higher to 0.47% from 0.11% prior, for a 24-month high (and vs a 12-month average of 0.13% M/M SA). Per  the BLS, ". Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased".
  • "Food away from home"  (eg restaurants) maintained its strength, at 0.28%, from 0.24% prior (it's averaged 0.30% M/M SA for the last 12 months).