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Growing FOMC Consensus For Two 50bp Hikes

FED
  • Cleveland Fed’s Mester speaks in an interview with Yahoo Finance ahead of her prepared remarks at a panel appearance on challenges during balance sheet normalisation at 1500ET.
  • Her comments were broadly consistent with Apr 22 headlines but act as growing evidence on FOMC consensus around 50bp hikes at the next two meetings (followed a typically more dovish Williams offering the same) after Powell’s steer at last week’s FOMC.
  • Her own forecast sees above-neutral rates but she is open-minded, again arguing to get rates to neutral and then evaluate once there. As with other members, she sees a need to sell MBS at some point, something that could get more attention at her upcoming remarks.
  • Fed Funds futures are back to pricing just shy of 2x50bp hikes (98.6bps) whilst front-end Tsy yields push back on the earlier rally on the combination of Fedspeak, up 4bps from the earlier low for largely unchanged on the day.

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