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Growth Data Declines Significantly Below Expectations

PERU
  • Economic activity data in Peru substantially missed estimates in May following two consecutive prints of low expansion. The data appears to dash any hopes of a recovery following the political chaos and social protests throughout the country earlier this year. Peru released the data over the weekend:
    • Peru May Economic Activity Falls 1.43% Y/y, Est. +0.5% (BBG)
    • Peru's Lima June Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.6%; Est. 6.7% (BBG)
  • In the first five months of the year, Peru’s economy has contracted 0.49%, INEI said. The largest impact was generated by 70% collapse in its fishmeal industry, the largest in the world, which has been put on halt due to warmer waters triggered by the El Nino weather pattern. This is particularly interesting given the central bank’s most recent acknowledgement of risk associated with climatic factors. Scotiabank noted that the data may add to risks that the BCRP decides to bring forward the start of its rates cutting cycle to their last meeting of the quarter in September vs their current forecast of November.
  • The weak data also places pressure on President Boluarte, who in a late June survey by IEP, had an approval rating of just 12%. It also challenges the finance ministry, which has insisted that a recovery was already on the way and that the economy will grow 2.5% this year, a figure that looks increasingly doubtful to achieve.
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