Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The Westpac leading index for September fell 0.04% m/m and August was revised down to -0.16% (from -0.05%). This was the fifth consecutive monthly drop. This brought the 6-month annualised rate to -1.15% from -0.33%, the lowest since the Covid-impacted August 2020. This measure continues to point to a slowing in the economy three to nine months ahead.
- The drop to -1.15% is signalling that growth could be below trend at the start of 2023. Apart from the pandemic, it is the lowest since early 2016, but growth only slowed moderately later that year.
- Activity has been very robust with Q2 posting +0.9% q/q and Q3 possibly stronger, but it is generally expected to slow going into the end of the year, as rate hikes start to have an impact. Westpac is forecasting only 1% GDP growth in 2023.
- The decline seen in the indicator in recent months has been driven by the yield spread, lower commodity prices in AUDs, normalisation of hours worked, sell off in equities and softer US IP.
- See press release here.
Westpac Leading Index 6-month annualised growth
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Westpac
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok