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GS and JPM Continue To See June Pause, But Close Call

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • GS: "While we continue to expect the Fed to pause in June, this morning’s stronger-than-expected consumer spending and inflation data and the wide range of views by FOMC participants on the appropriate policy path make this a close call."
  • JPM: "If the debt ceiling is resolved without too much damage to sentiment, and banking troubles don’t resurface, then the broad sweep of data so far could make for an interesting debate at next month’s FOMC meeting, though we still believe the Fed will leave rates unchanged."
  • OIS currently prices a 16bp hike for Jun before a cumulative 25bp for July.

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