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GS: Broad Strength In October CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Goldman Sachs notes broad-based strength in the October CPI report and looks for a strong core PCE price index print.

  • The composition was also strong, with a second month of four-tenth shelter readings, a further pickup among auto categories, and a sharp inflection higher in health insurance inflation.
  • There were again signs of wage-price pass-through, with strength across restaurants, recreation services, household operations, and day care.
  • GS still expects health insurance to boost CPI over the next 10 months after the BLS incorporated newly available annual source data, driving a further wedge between CPI and PCE.
  • They estimate core PCE prices up +0.37% M/M in October, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +4.02%.
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