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GS on Poland Inflation

POLAND
  • The Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) will publish the February inflation data on Tuesday, March 15.
  • On the back of temporary VAT tax cuts that came into effect in February, which cover energy and food items, GS expects inflation to decline from +9.2%yoy to +8.3%yoy, above consensus expectations of +8.1%yoy.
  • The uncertainty surrounding the impact of tax-related measures introduces two-sided risks for the release, but GS thinks that underlying inflation will remain strong and expect core inflation measures to continue rising.
  • Furthermore, the February print will not yet reflect the recent sharp increase in commodity prices as well as significant depreciation of the Zloty, which should add to an already challenging inflation outlook in Poland.
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