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GS on Poland Inflation and NBP Meeting

POLAND
  • On GS baseline projections, headline inflation is nearing a local peak in the coming months.
  • However, given that underlying inflation is running at a faster pace than the yoy figure would suggest, GS conviction on the timing and the extent of this peak remains low.
  • Moreover, GS expects core inflation to continue rising until year-end.
  • GS thinks that challenging inflation dynamics and risks of destabilising inflation expectations will require further tightening by the NBP, and GS expects the NBP to deliver an additional 75bp rate hike to +6.75% next week.
  • However, as activity data begins to weaken, with the PMI falling by 4.1pt to 44.4 in June, it will be important to gauge next week how the NBP will balance high inflation and growth concerns.
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