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GS: Payrolls Face Seasonal Headwinds In July

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman see nonfarm payrolls rising a seasonally adjusted 225k in July, a slowdown from +372k in June.
  • They assume a seasonal headwind of circa 250k: July seasonal factors have evolved significantly more restrictive—even more so than in June—and the seasonal adjustment software may be overfitting to the reopening-related job strength in the summers of 2020 and 2021.
  • Further, while Big Data indicators were mixed in the month, jobless claims have risen, consistent with a drag from tighter financial conditions and modestly higher retail and technology layoffs.
  • On the positive side, there could be a boost from education seasonality as fewer-than-normal janitors and support staff left for the summer (+75k mom sa, public and private).
  • U/E rate seen unchanged at 3.6%, reflecting flat-to-up labor force participation and a rebound in household employment, the latter of which does not exhibit the same negative residual seasonality expected in NFPs.
  • AHE seen +0.3% M/M with the year-ago rate down two tenths to 4.9%. The arrival of the youth labor force may have eased some of the upward pressure on wages, but expect a boost from positive calendar effects.
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