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Free AccessGS: Payrolls Face Seasonal Headwinds In July
- Goldman see nonfarm payrolls rising a seasonally adjusted 225k in July, a slowdown from +372k in June.
- They assume a seasonal headwind of circa 250k: July seasonal factors have evolved significantly more restrictive—even more so than in June—and the seasonal adjustment software may be overfitting to the reopening-related job strength in the summers of 2020 and 2021.
- Further, while Big Data indicators were mixed in the month, jobless claims have risen, consistent with a drag from tighter financial conditions and modestly higher retail and technology layoffs.
- On the positive side, there could be a boost from education seasonality as fewer-than-normal janitors and support staff left for the summer (+75k mom sa, public and private).
- U/E rate seen unchanged at 3.6%, reflecting flat-to-up labor force participation and a rebound in household employment, the latter of which does not exhibit the same negative residual seasonality expected in NFPs.
- AHE seen +0.3% M/M with the year-ago rate down two tenths to 4.9%. The arrival of the youth labor force may have eased some of the upward pressure on wages, but expect a boost from positive calendar effects.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.