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GS revise BTP-Bund spread forecasts

EGBS
  • "We see multiple headwinds for BTPs. Under the combined effect of rising political uncertainty and a potential loss of policy continuity at a critical juncture, we revise our 10y BTP-bund target to 250bp (from 200bp before) at year-end."
  • "Due to the (political) nature of the recent BTP-bund spread widening, we believe there is a high hurdle for the ECB to activate support through its freshly-announced TPI. This suggests to us that the ECB's resolve to normalize policy settings could be tested by markets."
  • "With ongoing concerns of energy supply disruptions and rising sovereign stress, we see clear downside risks to our 10y bund yield forecasts of 2% at year-end."
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