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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs writes that they have further cut the probability that a US recession will start in the next twelve months from 25% to 20%.
- Drivers: “both recent data and ongoing fundamentals point to rapid—and mostly painless—disinflation from here”.
- They don’t share yield curve inversion as a recession predictor concerns because:
- “1) the term premium is lower than normal,
- 2) there is a plausible non-recession path to cuts, and
- 3) we think rates investors, like forecasters, have yet to take the recent signs of a soft landing fully on board.”
This remains in stark contrast to the NY Fed’s model based on Tsy spreads – also with a twelve month outlook – which stood at 67% in its June update.
NY Fed Probability of Recession In US In Twelve Months Based On Treasury SpreadSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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