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Free AccessH1 OPEC+ Crude Output Higher YoY Despite Cuts: JP Morgan
OPEC+ pumped around 44.6mbpd of crude in the first half of this year, up by 175kbpd year on year, despite the additional voluntary output cuts by the group that came into effect in May, JP Morgan said in a note.
- While the oil market is finally starting to show signs of tightening, to fully regain market power this year, the bank estimates OPEC+ needs to deepen its cuts by another 0.7mbpd in 2H23 in addition to already announced reductions. The full 0.7mbpd cut would need to be extended into 2024 in order to offset both non-OPEC supply growth and rising output from some non-core OPEC members.
- Even with OPEC’s existing 1.16mbdd voluntary cuts extended into 2024, the bank still projects a 0.6mbpd surplus next year, as non-OPEC production fully matches growth in global demand.
- JP Morgan forecasts this year’s global demand gain of 1.6mbpd will be fully covered by the 2.2mbpd rise in non-OPEC supply, with most of the supply growth coming from the Atlantic Basin.
- US oil operators are leading the surge with 1Q23 total US liquids production rising by 1.55mbpd above last year’s levels, with 1.1mbpd gains coming from crude alone. For 2023, the bank projects US production to grow 1.3mbpd.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.