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BTP TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bounce Extends

BTP TECHS
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisCEEMEAEurozoneItalyBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
  • RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
  • RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
  • RES 1: 119.90 50-day EMA  
  • PRICE: 119.45 @ Close Jan 21 
  • SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
  • SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
  • SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

A medium-term bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and recent fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.

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  • RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
  • RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
  • RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
  • RES 1: 119.90 50-day EMA  
  • PRICE: 119.45 @ Close Jan 21 
  • SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
  • SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
  • SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

A medium-term bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and recent fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.