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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
In a convention of US presidential elections, the unincorporated community of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire cast its votes in the Republican presidential primary at midnight on 23 Jan. All six votes went to former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. However, the broader and more impactful story is that opinion polling in the run-up to today's primary in the Granite State shows former President Donald Trump holding a commanding lead over Haley. The latest from Trafalgar has Trump on 58%, Haley on 35% with 5% undecided.
- A strong showing or win is seen as a prerequisite for Haley's campaign to continue effectively. New Hampshire's Republican voters are seen as more moderate than many other GOP voter groups around the US, providing what should be fertile ground for Haley to gain a substantial proportion of the vote. Should she come in a distant second it could see funding dry up, making it all-but-impossible for her campaign to continue beyond her home state of South Carolina and up to Super Tuesday.
- The broader polling landscape also remains favourable to Trump. The Biden administration is hoping that improving voter perceptions around the state of the US economy will boost Democratic support, but recent polling from Harvard CAPS/Harris shows Trump leading Biden 47% to 42% with 10% undecided, or with 'leaners' added and 'don't knows' stripped out, leading 52% to 48% (see chart below).
Chart 1. Biden vs. Trump Hypothetical Polling, %
Source: Harvard CAPS/Harris. Fieldwork: 17-18 Jan, 2,346 registered voters.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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