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Hanging Onto 2x50bp Fed Hikes

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes for near-term meetings are little changed from Friday afternoon’s softer levels, with 51bps for Jun and 100.5bps Jul.
  • Hikes further out have cooled recently, in part from Beijing reporting the most new Covid cases of the current outbreak, but at 139bp for Sep and 193bp for Dec are close to where they ended last week. More explicit guidance from ECB’s Lagarde (APP net purchases end very early in Q3 allowing rate lift-off in July) saw a small uptick that’s since been reversed.
  • Light on data and Fedspeak today, with only Bostic (’24 voter) scheduled for the main session at 1200ET before George (’22) later at 1930ET at an Agricultural Symposium.

Source: Bloomberg

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