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Harris Slightly Favoured In Presidential Race, The Hill/DDHQ

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The Hill/DDHQ has published their updated presidential election forecast, showing Kamala Harris with a 55% chance of winning the presidency. The previous version of the model, before President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, showed Trump with a 56% chance of winning.

  • The Hill notes: “Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain Toss-ups (but with Harris improving on Biden’s probabilities in each of these states), while Michigan moves from Toss-up to Lean Democratic and North Carolina moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up.”
  • On Congress: “In the Senate, Republicans still lead with a 67% chance to take the majority, compared to their 78% chance when Biden led the Democratic ticket. Control of the House is still a relative toss up, with the GOP having a 56% chance of winning control compared to their 61% chance prior to our pause in the model.”
  • The DDHQ model tracks closely with the forecasts run by The Economist, Nate Silver, and 538, all of which show a tight race with Harris enjoying a slight edge.

Figure 1: Chance of Winning the Presidency

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The Hill/DDHQ has published their updated presidential election forecast, showing Kamala Harris with a 55% chance of winning the presidency. The previous version of the model, before President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, showed Trump with a 56% chance of winning.

  • The Hill notes: “Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain Toss-ups (but with Harris improving on Biden’s probabilities in each of these states), while Michigan moves from Toss-up to Lean Democratic and North Carolina moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up.”
  • On Congress: “In the Senate, Republicans still lead with a 67% chance to take the majority, compared to their 78% chance when Biden led the Democratic ticket. Control of the House is still a relative toss up, with the GOP having a 56% chance of winning control compared to their 61% chance prior to our pause in the model.”
  • The DDHQ model tracks closely with the forecasts run by The Economist, Nate Silver, and 538, all of which show a tight race with Harris enjoying a slight edge.

Figure 1: Chance of Winning the Presidency

Keep reading...Show less