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Hawkish EUR STIR Move Extends On U.S. Data

STIR
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The U.S. data has driven an extension of the hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs.

  • ECB-dated OIS still shows nearly 21bp of cuts through the June meeting (repeated ECB guidance towards a June cut anchors pricing), with a more pronounced move seen further out the strip, as ~67bp of cuts show through year end.
  • Euribor futures are 1-6bp lower on the day, with contracts beyond ERM4 registering fresh ’24 lows.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.704-20.7
Jul-243.615-29.6
Sep-243.453-45.8
Oct-243.373-53.8
Dec-243.242-66.9
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The U.S. data has driven an extension of the hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs.

  • ECB-dated OIS still shows nearly 21bp of cuts through the June meeting (repeated ECB guidance towards a June cut anchors pricing), with a more pronounced move seen further out the strip, as ~67bp of cuts show through year end.
  • Euribor futures are 1-6bp lower on the day, with contracts beyond ERM4 registering fresh ’24 lows.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.704-20.7
Jul-243.615-29.6
Sep-243.453-45.8
Oct-243.373-53.8
Dec-243.242-66.9