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Hawkish hold at first glance

BOE
  • Based on vote split and unchanged guidance we see this decision as a hawkish hold at first glance.
Summary BOE views on:
  • Labour market: "There have been some further signs of a loosening in the labour market, although it remains tight by historical standards."
  • Wages: "Annual private sector regular Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) growth increased to 8.1% in the three months to July, 0.8 percentage points above the August Report projection. The recent path of the AWE is, however, difficult to reconcile with other indicators of pay growth. Most of these have tended to be more stable at rates of growth that are elevated but not quite as high as the AWE series."
  • Services inflation: "Some of those movements are linked to services such as airfares and accommodation that tend to be volatile over the summer holiday period. Excluding these travel-related components, services inflation has been more stable at continued high rates, albeit slightly weaker than expected."
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