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Hawkish Mester Remarks, But Prepared Pre-CPI Miss

FED
  • BBDXY continues to rise off post CPI lows and Treasuries come off highs after Cleveland Fed’s Mester (’22 voter) gives text remarks that would be perceived as hawkish after today’s CPI downside surprise but they were likely prepared before the data. There could be more attention on following Q&A.
  • “Despite the moves we have made so far, given that inflation has consistently proven to be more persistent than expected and there are significant costs of continued high inflation, I currently view the larger risks as coming from tightening too little”
  • Other Bloomberg headlines:
    • Inflation still broad-based, service prices not slowing.
    • Must weigh risk of doing too much vs too little.
    • Focus can now shift to how restrictive Fed needs to be.
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