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Hawkish NBH Keeps Supporting HUF

HUNGARY
  • HUF has been the best performer among EM currencies in August as NBH maintains its hawkish tone, delivering its third consecutive 30bps interest rate hike on August 24, raising the benchmark rate to 1.50%.
  • HUF is up 2.5% against the USD this month (see chart below).
  • USDHUF has been constantly testing new lows in recent weeks and is currently trading slightly below its 295 support; next level to watch on the downside stands at 290. On the topside, first resistance stands at 296.30 (100DMA), followed by 297.70 (200DMA).
  • Hungary 10Y yield has been flat in the past few days after retracing sharply higher in the beginning of last week. Key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 3%; on the downside, first support stands at 2.83% (100D and 50DMA), followed by 2.74%.
  • This morning, economic data showed that average gross wages decelerated to 3.5% YoY in June, down from 8.2% the previous month.
  • Next important data to watch are manufacturing PMI on Sep 1 and PPI inflation on Sep 2.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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