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STIR: Hawkish NFP Move In Fed Pricing Unwound By CPI, 40bp '25 Cuts Priced

STIR
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Dovish repricing in the U.S. short end on the back of the slightly softer-than-expected round of core and supercore CPI data.

  • The hawkish repricing that followed last week’s NFP release has been fully reversed, with Fed Funds once again pricing ~40bp of cuts through year-end.
  • The hawkish move topped out at ~23.5bp of cuts on Monday.
  • The next 25bp cut is fully discounted through the July FOMC vs. the September FOMC ahead of the CPI data.
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Dovish repricing in the U.S. short end on the back of the slightly softer-than-expected round of core and supercore CPI data.

  • The hawkish repricing that followed last week’s NFP release has been fully reversed, with Fed Funds once again pricing ~40bp of cuts through year-end.
  • The hawkish move topped out at ~23.5bp of cuts on Monday.
  • The next 25bp cut is fully discounted through the July FOMC vs. the September FOMC ahead of the CPI data.