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Hawkish Rate Expectations Intensify Ahead of FOMC This Week

US TSYS SUMMARY

Mirroring the sell-off in EGBs seen earlier in the session, USTs have traded sharply weaker today on the back of intensifying hawkish rate expectations.

  • Cash yields are now 17-22bp higher with the curve bear flattening. TYU2 is holding near the lows of the day.
  • The 10-year benchmark yield has firmly surpassed the 2018 highs and returned to levels not seen since 2011, while the 2-year yield is back to 2007 levels.
  • With the ECB making an uncharacteristically hawkish pivot at last week's GC meeting when President Lagarde indicated that a 50bp hike in September is on the cards provided there is not a marked improvement in the inflation outlook, a small number of analysts are speculating on the possibility of a 75bp Fed hike this week.
  • The next round of primary elections will take place tomorrow in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina. This will mark a test of former president Donald Trump's endorsees against more moderate GOP candidates.
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